Uneasy Rhetoric

A lot has been made lately of the problems inherent in polling during this election.

First, there is the controversy over how pollsters are building their samples. Most polls are relatively small — under a thousand people — so a random sample just won’t do. There is too much noise. To get a “representative” sample, pollsters have to make sure they are calling in all of the relevant voting blocks. Unfortunately, some are oversampling Republicans.

Second, and related to the first because Republicans vote more than Democrats, is the fact that most polls we hear about are of “likely voters.” That term is open to interpretation but is usually based on a voter’s history. Did they vote in the last presidential election? Do they habitually vote? In a normal election (read: in the past), these numbers would be fine. However, this election has seen an incredible amount of voter registration activity from both parties. These new voters aren’t being counted.

Finally, there are the younger voters who use the cell phone as their primary, and often only, phone. Pollsters aren’t calling these people because, as I understand it, they usually can’t.

I have to wonder if, at the end of the day, the pollsters will be redeemed. I realize this is a pessimistic view, and as a supporter of the underdog, I should be more optimistic, even if it raises my blood pressure. However, the pollsters pick “likely voters” (and an oversampling of Republicans) because they do vote. People who are not “likely voters” are just as likely to skip this election as not. New voters are likely to split the vote amongst themselves in a manner similar to the sample of likely voters. If they don’t, for example if new voters turn out in greater numbers for Kerry or if Kerry wins in states where the polls say “Bush” but where there was significant Democratic registration activity, then we will know for certain that the registrations were a success.

But what about the young person factor? Again, there is an assumption, which may be false, that the young person’s vote will follow the polling of likely voters closely enough that it won’t cause skewing in the polls. Among progressives though, there is a growing hope that younger voters tend to be more progressive and concerned about war and in particular about the draft (all politics is not only local, it’s personal). I hope that is true, but the same attitude that may make young people seem more progressive may also be the one that keeps them from the polls, namely, cynicism.

I remain somewhat pessimistic (which is what happens to cynicism when you’re over 30). When Dean was bursting onto the scene and the media was going ga ga over how his use of the internet was turning thousands on to politics, I remember saying “I just don’t think it will last.” He had too much momentum, too quickly, and just like the dot.com boom, the value of his support was grossly overstated. Sure, Dean brought thousands into politics, and his campaign turned a footnote into a major contender, but it wasn’t enough to turn the tide. Only time will tell whether the Dean supporters will be motivated to remain involved in politics, or whether they will return to their cynical selves, the kind of people who don’t vote because it just doesn’t seem to matter.

For Kerry’s sake, I hope I’m wrong. I hope the newly registered turn up at the polls; certainly plenty of organizations are getting out the vote on November 2nd, but we have to remember it works both ways. For every Hybrid carrying granny to the polling place there will be an SUV carry grandpa.